Date: 22 May 2020, Friday
Time: 3 pm
Speaker: A/Prof John Nichols (Texas A&M University)
Abstract:
The COVID Fatality data is often grouped into subsets that represent political boundaries, if these political boundaries represent unique compact urban areas fully contained in the urban sense then the application of the SEIR model appears to be somewhat applicable, but, if this is not the case, the assumptions that are made for the SEIR model may result in a poor predictive model. The use of Fast Fourier transforms of the residual data from an exponential regression analysis provides a method to estimate the frequency response of the residuals, which can be used to review the SEIR modelling of the urban area. The second method is a GPD analysis of the daily ratio of the fatalities to the prior day, which may prove to be a method to determine unique compactness. Examples using NY and Texas will be used.
Link to the recording: Zoom Recording
Presentation slides are also available here: Talk Slides